Archive for the ‘Markets’

Presentation on Gentrification Plan for Portland Metro

Today, September 14, our very own Kevin Caplet was a speaker on a panel for Portland State’s Center for Real Estate. This panel consisted of 7 experts in the field. Here is the presentation in PDF format. The presentation consisted of:

The Seven Year Recovery

• The Portland Area Real Estate Market • TheSingleFamilyMarket

• TheMulti-FamilyMarket • TheCommercialMarket

Housing Economics 101

“Affordable” Housing Policies • InclusionaryZoning

• LinkageFees
• HousingandUrbanRenewal

The Gentrification Plan of Metro Portland

• Density at Any Cost

• MoreRentExplosion
• Alternatives to ZeroExpansion

We hope you find this information informative.

Presentation – The Gentrification Plan of Metro Portland

Portland Leads Housing Market

Will it continue? Many discussions have been had by all in the city on the housing market. From being a seller market and multiple bids, to the rent being way too high.  A recent article was published by the Oregonian. Here are highlights.

“It began in October. Home values in Portland grew that month as fast year-over-year as the red-hot prices in Denver and San Francisco.

With homes in the region gaining 10.9 percent in value between October 2014 and 2015, Portland had joined those two cities atop a closely watched national report gauging the strength of the housing market in 20 major cities.

But that was only the beginning.

Portland’s housing market has been the hottest in the country for the last seven months, by the Case-Shiller measure and by others. A new report last week from Zillow found that Portland saw the nation’s largest annual decrease in the inventory of bottom-tier homes among the 35 largest metro areas. There are nearly 40 percent fewer homes worth less than $279,200 available than there were a year ago.

And the latest report from the local Regional Multiple Listing Service found that the average home in the region now sells for more than $400,000, the first time the market has reached such heights. The median sale price, similarly, crossed the $350,000 barrier.

So will the Portland market’s historic run ever slow down? The cyclical laws of boom and bust demand it will eventually. But the real question – as the city continues to deal with a population boom, a housing-affordability crisis and historically high increases in rents – is when.

“I couldn’t even begin to tell you that,” said Tim Duy, an economics professor at the University of Oregon. “There’s no fundamental law that says it has to end anytime soon. And it won’t end until we have more balance between supply and demand in the housing market.”

For now, that’s not happening. Demand is severely outpacing supply. Between March 2015 and May 2016, the only time the local market hit 2 months of inventory was in November. The figure estimates how long it would take all homes on the market to sell at the current pace; six months represents a balanced inventory and anything below that signals a seller’s market. The 1.2 months of inventory the region had in December was the lowest level since at least 1999.

International politics might be adding fuel to Portland’s housing fire, too. The economic uncertainty stemming from the United Kingdom’s vote last week to leave the European Union caused investors worldwide to flee the stock market in favor of more reliable – but lower yielding – treasury bonds, which puts downward pressure on interest rates and makes mortgage borrowing more affordable, said Brian Allen, a longtime broker and the head of Windermere Stellar.

But as long as competition and pricing remain high and supply low, buyers – especially first-timers – will continue to experience a frustrating market, according to Gardner.

“It’s very hard for them to even afford to get an entry-level house. … The move-up buyer sells to the first-time buyer in order to move up,” Gardner said. “Those move-up buyers aren’t finding anything to buy. And because they can’t find anything to buy, they’re not listing their house for sale. So you kind of get in a chicken-and-egg situation.”

 

Thank to the Oregonian for this article. For more information in regards to this article please contact:

— Luke Hammill
lhammill@oregonian.com
503-294-4029
@lucashammill